8/20/2018 BABA earnings this Thursday. MU is at a good price to go long at.

Hi all.

BABA bounced near the buy zone I mentioned last week, but I did not catch the jump up and still have no position.  I will see if it looks attractive after earnings this Thursday.

MU is at a strong support level, and I expect it to bounce.  I have not decided whether or not I want to take this trade. 

MU 8_20_2018.PNG

This week’s update was also short and sweet because I’ve been taking less trades (and hopefully better ones).  

Thanks!

 

8/13/2018 Stocks continue to go sideways. I’m getting ready to buy BABA and short QQQ.

Hi all!  Nothing too exciting has happened in the last week so this week’s discussion will be short. 

I still like Facebook (FB) for the long term hold (1 year +).

As for BABA, I’m getting ready to buy it for the week before earnings since it seems to go up the week before earnings every time.

I also plan to short QQQ if we retest the 182.5 – 183 level with a stop loss about 3 dollars above and a profit exit 9-10 dollars below my entry.

Good luck trading!

8/6/2018 Not much to discuss. FB trade going well, and looking to buy BABA sometime next week.

FB jumped about 4.5 today, which was good (for me at least).  

QQQ is approaching 182.5 again which is where I was stopped out last time.  I plan to reshort at that price most likely.

Lastly, I plan to buy BABA next week in anticipation of a pre-earnings run up.  It seems like it always moves up the week or so before earnings.  The earnings date is 8/23 (two Thursdays from this Thursday).

BABA Earnings Play 8_6_2018.PNG

I plan to buy BABA somewhere in that rectangle support area, and sell the day before earnings.  I will have both a hard stop loss, and a time stop loss (selling before earnings no matter what).  This will reduce the stress from deciding when to sell (for a loss or gain).  

See you next week, good luck trading! 

7/29/2018 One new position (in FB), and looking to reshort the QQQ on strength.

Nothing has changed much since last week in terms of my overall outlook on the market.

Unfortunately, I was stopped out of my QQQ trade right near the peak.  However, I plan to reshort it if we get a pop back to the 182 ish level.

I decided to add a medium sized position in Facebook (FB) in my retirement/long term account after the 20% drop last week.  I plan to add another position of the same size if we hit 150.  I plan to hold for at least a year.  

FB long term trade 7_26_2018.PNG

I bought my first batch of FB at 175, and plan to add another batch at 150.  My target is 250+.  

7/23/2018 Weekly outlook and new positions taken. Still bearish.

Hi everyone.  Sorry for not getting an update in yesterday.  

I’ve taken two new positions recently since the setup was good. 

I bought some shares of HTHT at 40 and shorted a large amount of QQQ on Friday’s close.  

HTHT trade.PNG

As for QQQ, GOOG just had a big earnings beat, so it is currently dragging the QQQ up.  We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow.

I was planning on shorting QQQ in the 182.5-184 range, but decided to short it on Friday’s close because the index looked really weak (upward momentum had stopped).  My stop loss is now right near 182.5.  

QQQ Trade 7_23_2018.PNG

Markets have been choppy so I’ve been trading a lot less.  This also means I have less to blog about 😦

 

7/14/2018 Still Holding All Cash. I’m getting ready to short QQQ again in the 182.5-184 range with a target in the 166-170 range.

QQQ Weekly 7_14_2018.PNG

I hope you have all had a nice weekend so far.  

I’m currently looking to short QQQ near 182.5 with a stop loss at 185.5.  My target area is the support zone at 166-170.  This is a risk reward of about 4-6 to 1, which is very good.  A potential risk is that the stop loss is too close, so if you don’t want to get whipsawed, you can take a smaller position size and have a wider stop loss.  The tradeoff is that your risk reward will be worse.  

Also, to protect profits, I plan to drop my stop loss from 185.5 to 182.5 if QQQ drops below 178.  

The main reasons for the short are as follows (in order of importance).

1: QQQ is approaching the top of trend line resistance, hinting that momentum will likely slow at that price as bulls get exhausted

2: There are massive RSI divergences on both the daily and weekly chart.  These divergences come from the fact that the RSI and the price direction are not agreeing.  Notice how the RSI is failing to get anywhere above 70, but in January, QQQ had an RSI reading of over 80. 

In sum, while the index continues to make new highs, the RSI fails to make new highs.  This hints at slowing buying interest.  

3. Volume is significantly higher on the down days/weeks, hinting that the big fish, or the institutions, are selling.  This is called “distribution.”  From the weekly chart of QQQ above, you can see lots of these distribution weeks.  

Also, MU and INTC have climbed a significant amount in the last week, but I am still waiting for a significant pullback to buy.  At this point, I might just stay away since I believe the semiconductor sector is due for a correction (10%+ drop).

Sunday 7/8/2018 Weekly Outlook. I’m all cash now, and although I covered my shorts on Thursday last week, I’m still bearish on stocks.

On Thursday 7/5, I covered my QQQ short position for a relatively small gain due to the fact that QQQ wasn’t dropping as fast as I was expecting (showing a lot of unusual strength).  Sure enough, come Friday, bears got slaughtered again.  I told myself on Thursday that I could short another move higher, which I am considering doing if QQQ retests the highs again.  

Since I also exited my SIG short position on Thursday as well, I’m holding all cash now.  For some reason, out of the 10-11 months I’ve been trading, Friday was the only day where I held all cash in both my regular trading account and my Roth IRA.  Perhaps I’ve been having an urge to always be in at least one trade at any given time.  

My top potential picks for going long are MU and INTC, with MU being my heavy favorite.  I’m also considering going long on BABA and the SOXX, a semiconductor ETF, which includes MU and INTC.  Of course, I’m waiting for another significant dip of >5% on MU and BABA before I would be buying aggressively.  

Like I mentioned last week, I think that because the financial sector is struggling to hold the support level, I believe we will likely experience a lot of downside in the coming months in all stocks, not just the financial sector.   

I’m looking to buy MU on any big gap down or a drop to the 46-50 support zone.   I’m looking to aggressively buy BABA in the mid/high 170s.  I will buy INTC on any retest of the previous low near 48.5.   There are a few other stocks I’m watching, like TAL and SGH, but these stocks aren’t as liquid and are quite a bit more volatile (which can be good and bad).  

TLDR: I plan to reshort QQQ if we retest the highs near 178.  I’m looking to buy the above mentioned stocks if they drop in the next few weeks.  

Good luck trading, and remember to have fun and stay happy! 🙂