Hi everyone, I’ve been really busy with work so this post is a bit off the normal schedule. I have not made any changes to BABA, INTC, or BILI and am continuing to hold them. The market has been quite volatile, so let’s also take a look at some of the longer term charts of the indexes.
BABA weekly chart below. Delisting fears are back again and investors don’t like it. BABA has been stuck in the trading range of 80-120 for most of this year, and I suspect this will continue unless there is a major catalyst. For short term traders, it might make sense to short near 120, and buy near 80.
SPY weekly chart below. The market doesn’t like the high inflation reports. The Fed is raising interest rates aggressively to try to tame inflation, and SPY has been dropping to compensate. From a technical perspective, the index still looks to be in a longer term uptrend, but if we go slightly lower (near 360-370), I think the index will drop quickly due to panic sellers. If going long, you could use a stop loss at 370, and a profit exit at 420 (that’s a risk of 15 to a reward of 35). I am bullish at current levels for the short term (1 – 2 months) because the risk/reward favors the index moving higher.
META weekly chart below. I think the market has overreacted to negative news so being long at current levels for the long term (3-5+ years) would make for a decent trade/investment. I think that a mean reversion should take us back to around the 230-250 range.
Hi everyone, I hope you are doing well! I think BABA has finally ended its downtrend that it started years ago.
Here are a couple indications of why I think this is the case:
The stock tends to gap up (more buying in Hong Kong market) and also ends the day near its highs
The length of this recovery in terms of duration / time is also longer than previous bounces. Most of the previous bounces stopped after around 14 days, although many did stop around the 28 day mark (which is the current duration of this bounce)
BABA weekly chart below. Notice how much longer this recovery is compared to the other bounces.
My INTC position isn’t doing very well, but I’m not very concerned because I like the company’s growth plan and more importantly the dividend yield.
I’m starting to really like META and NFLX from a valuation standpoint, although I still like BABA more. If META were to drop to ~120, that would be roughly the same valuation as BABA is at currently. I’m still holding a cash position that is roughly 10% of my portfolio value, and won’t hesitate to deploy it if META drops significantly from current levels.
The overall US market looks a bit shaky still because we are bouncing after a short term downtrend. Although I think we have another 5% upside from current levels, it seems better to be short here (or have no position) than to be long. If I were still doing short term trading, I would short in the 300-310 range and cover in the 260-270 range with a 10-15 dollar stop loss. Risk is 10-15 with a reward of 30-50, which is a risk to reward ratio of 1:2 up to 1:5
Hey everyone, welcome back! I’ve been very busy so this post is very late compared to the normal weekly posts. I made many changes to my portfolio in the last month so here’s an update.
I started a half sized position (3.5% of total account value) in BILI at $18.69 at market close today. I like the anime they produce, and the price is reasonable given their revenue and growth potential. I plan to have it up to a maximum of 7% of my total account value if it drops significantly lower to around $10.
BILI weekly chart below:
Also, I increased my BABA shares by another 15% at a price just above $88. This was about 2 weeks ago. Shares are currently at about $82 and my average is around $120. I’ve never seen such a financially sound company drop this much and to valuations this cheap. My plan is to sell it at or above 250, which is what I believe the company is worth today given cash flows and sales. I also don’t mind holding for 5-10 years.
Lastly, the INTC puts I sold closed in the money last Friday (I sold the 45 strike puts) so I now have a full sized INTC position which is ~20% of my total account value. I’m down a little on it despite getting multiple dividends. INTC weekly chart below:
I plan to go to grad school for my MBA and I’m currently studying for the GMAT. As a result, posts will likely be less frequent than once a week. Thank you for reading, and I’ll see you at the next post!
Hi everyone, welcome back! I’ve been very busy with my move to Austin, Texas, so this post is a bit late. Everything is settled now so these blog posts should be a bit more regular like before.
I sold a couple INTC puts 2 weeks ago. I sold the May 20th, 45 strike puts for $1.5 premium each. They are currently selling for a bit less, so I’m up a little bit on those. I don’t mind getting filled on them if the price is below 45 in a month. I plan to sell calls on it if I do get assigned (wheel strategy).
Also, despite BABA’s recent decline in price, I see no change in its’ fundamentals so I will likely be adding either a little more or diversifying a bit into something like FB. Although I wanted FB at 200, it’s still a decent buy at current prices.
INTC daily chart below:
FB weekly chart below:
BABA weekly chart below:
BILI weekly chart below:
I think Bili’s valuation is decent now, although it could certainly slide another 50% so I would start with a small position. I like the anime Bili produces so that’s another reason to buy some.
BABA shares dropped significantly on Friday, and since the same delisting fears were brought up as a reason for the drop, I saw no reason not to continue averaging down into the position. I’m down quite a bit on it (average is just under 130), but increased my position size by 20% at 88.33 on Friday.
Facebook stock is looking better and better, but I like BABA more in terms of value. It is however about 40-45% of my total account value, so it’s probably best to buy some Facebook or other stocks next.
Hi everyone, welcome back! I’ve made no changes to my portfolio the last couple weeks.
I originally had a limit order for FB at 200, but decided to pull it a day or two before it actually hit 200. My rationale was that the market was feeling as volatile as during March 2020, so I decided to wait. I still think it’s a good buy at 200 or below.
INTC had a “bad” earnings report, so their stock price has dropped pretty significantly lately too. I have one more add left that I might deploy soon.
FB daily chart below. Anything at or under 200 to me is considered a good deal.
INTC daily chart below. It’s a bit below my average, but because of the dividends I received, am about breakeven.
I sold my QQQ long position at 347 last Friday because volatility was picking up and I didn’t want a large gap down on Monday that would go through my stop loss. I originally bought it at 345 about 3 weeks ago, so I got out slightly above break even.
QQQ daily chart below:
Facebook (Meta) has been on my radar ever since the pullback down to about 290. After the disappointing earnings, it looks even better now in terms of value. Since I think large funds are still unwinding their positions, I have a half sized limit order at 200, and the other half will be purchased if it falls further.
Facebook daily chart below:
I’m still holding BABA (no changes there). I also haven’t touched any of my other long positions.
Hi everyone! Indexes have been very volatile the last couple weeks, and I bought some more INTC after their drop following earnings. I doubled my number of shares at 47.73 and it’s now 7% of my total account value.
My current portfolio allocation is as follows. The high cash position is partially because I will be moving out soon and need money for rent. The other reason is I don’t like the valuation of many US equities, and haven’t spent time researching companies.
Hi everyone. Markets have been dropping quite rapidly the last few days, and I decided the risk/reward looked really good at current levels. I haven’t made a trade in ~9 months now, but I decided to buy QQQ at $345 in after hours today.
QQQ daily chart below: Entry: 345, Stop loss: 333, Profit Exit: 375. Mental stop loss: Close below 337. Total loss to account if stopped out: ~0.8%
Hi everyone! Welcome back. I’ve been really busy with my plan of moving to Austin, Texas, so these posts have been a bit less frequent than normal.
The indexes have dropped a bit lately, and FB is starting to look like a decent stock to buy at current levels. It’s trading at a ~23 P/E ratio, and P/S ratio of about 8, which are reasonable, but still a bit pricey for me. I would prefer buying it near a 6-7 P/S ratio, so I will refrain from starting a position in it now unless it drops another 10-15% from current levels (~280).
INTC still looks like a bargain. It’s trading at a ~10.5 P/E ratio and a ~3 P/S ratio, so I will likely buy more of that before buying FB.
INTC weekly chart below. I bought a small position at $49 about 3 months ago. It’s a bit higher now, but still cheap.
FB weekly chart below. I ideally want to start buying when it’s at or below $280. It might not get there though.