6/9/2018 Market Review and Next Week’s Forecast. *Warning* Lots of material this post!

Market Stocks 6_9_2018.PNG

Greetings, and welcome back! 

I noticed I was spending upwards of 6 hours a day watching my account value go up and down during the day, so I needed to take a break from stocks for a week.  As a result, I couldn’t blog.  Counting gains and losses when they weren’t “lost” or “gained” yet made no sense and was extremely frustrating.  I’m currently trying to break that habit of wasting time watching intra-day fluctuations.  

I’m thinking of going back to the regular schedule of blogging 3 times a week (every other day).  However, I will likely do just one post next week sometime between Friday and Sunday, and take it from there.  

Anyways, back to stocks!  Most of the stocks hit my target a week ahead of time.  MSFT was about 30 cents off from my target intra-day, and DIA was the biggest laggard.  I think markets are due for a pullback here, so I flipped bearish for the next 2 weeks.  Please note that I’m not recommending to short sell, but perhaps trim some positions and wait for a dip to add more. 

I will update my targets sometime next week after I look at the price action.  

I’m glad to finally see the support zone bounce from WB and BRKB.  I don’t hold any BRKB, but it still looks like a promising pick if you bought in the 190-192 zone like I recommended.  A good level to sell BRKB at would be 200.  ANAB hit my stop loss on my paper trading account a couple weeks ago, but I wanted to mention that just in case you were wondering where that pick went.  Can’t win them all! 🙂

For WB, I added my initial position at 103.5 a couple weeks back, and then doubled my position in after hours yesterday (Friday 6/8).  To keep my risk the same, I’ve raised my stop loss up from 95 to 99.6.  I’m a little nervous that the stop loss is too close, but we will have to see what Mr. Market thinks about that next week.  My target is still the resistance zone near 130-140, and I plan to aggressively pyramid (averaging up) into this position if all goes well.  

Also, note that I’ve added a bunch of stocks that I’m currently thinking of buying.  You can find those under the “Watchlist Stocks” area in the image above.  The “Value Zone” is the distance between the 100 and 200 day EMAs on the daily chart.  I believe that is a good area to buy stocks at.  

Let’s look at some charts, and then wrap up.  

QQQ daily 6_9_2018.PNG

Above is the QQQ on the daily chart.  I’ve highlighted a strong resistance level near 170.  I suspect the market wants to retest that level, and then make a move higher.  Bulls do NOT want to see a close below the bottom of that rectangle (near 167), as that will signal that the Bears are in complete control.  From here down to support at 170 represents about 2.5% downside, which isn’t too bad.  

 

DIA analysis 6_9_2018.PNG

DIA looks similar to QQQ, but just significantly weaker.  Resistance is near 257, with support near 250.  I have no idea where price will move, but I favor a test of the 245-250 support zone first.  Of course, we could have good news next week and hit 257 within a day or two.  

 

SPY Daily 6_9_2018.PNG

SPY is at resistance right now.  SPY is clearly stronger than DIA, but weaker than QQQ.  I favor a retest of at least 275 in the next few weeks.  Any daily close over 280 is very bullish.  

IWM Daily 6_9_2018.PNG

The IWM, which tracks the Russell 2000 ETF (small cap stocks), is the strongest index of them all.  I have no idea what’s going to happen, but I would not buy or sell at this price.  If I was forced to pick a direction, I would say there’s a 51% chance it closes lower next week.  

 

Here’s a bonus chart since I haven’t blogged for a while.

WYNN 6_9_2018 Daily.PNG

Here’s a chart of WYNN on the daily chart over the last two years.  The blue line is the 100 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the red line is the 200 day EMA.  The “Value Zone” is the area between those two lines (when the 100 day EMA is above the 200 day EMA).  WYNN has bounced off the value zone 6/8 times in the last two years (75% success rate).  Not only that, but the risk to reward ratio is excellent!  I will be aggressively buying if it hits 170.  I’ve learned to be more patient with my trades recently, but you could make a valid argument that now is a great time to buy too. 

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