3/15/2020 Indexes surge 5% – 6% in last 30 minutes of trading on Friday. Despite this, the S&P500 and Dow Jones end the week down 10%. I’m favoring a recovery into a test of the low created from this week because every other scenario is too obvious.

“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong” – Joseph Granville

I think most people, me included, is expecting a down move on Monday, which means it will probably close up instead.

The most tricky scenario I can think of assuming the market is rigged would be a gap down and close green on Monday. Then they could drop it Tuesday and Wednesday, but close the week green.

I’m expecting the moves to be a lot smaller next week, and I plan to write a cash secured put on Boeing stock (2 week 150 strike) if we gap down on Monday since I wouldn’t mind owning more shares at an effective price in the low 130s.

Daily chart of QQQ below. I suspect we trade in the 175-205 range for a couple weeks.

QQQ daily 3_15_2020

 

 

 

 

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