6/20/2020 Markets surprisingly up a little this week, but I’m still bearish (85% cash). Discussion of SPY, Boeing, and Airlines.

Hi everyone, and welcome back!

For the last 1-2 months, I mentioned I thought the SPY (S&P500) would have issues near the 320 level, and that has since played out. The index held up surprisingly well this week, but I am still bearish and think we will be 10-15% lower (270-280) within the next month.

This holds true unless SPY can make a solid daily close above 320. Although I didn’t take a short position in any stocks, I am still 85% cash and 15% stocks right now.

I noticed that the AAII sentiment survey this week came out extremely bearish again, so I would not be surprised if we continued higher for the next couple weeks. If SPY has a daily close above 320, I think we make all time highs.

Daily chart of SPY below:

Next, let’s look at Boeing. I sold at 230 about 2 weeks ago, and have been wanting to get back in. Waiting for a stock to drop to your price level is quite stressful and I got a good dose of FOMO. Normally I would just start selling cash secured puts, but the premium is so low for my entry price that I think it’s better off waiting.

Daily chart of Boeing below:

I’m still patiently waiting for a retest of the previous consolidation zone which is between 120 and 160, and plan to start selling cash secured puts if we reach 150 or lower.

Daily chart of JETS (airline ETF) below:

Notice how the chart of Boeing looks very similar to this airline ETF. The levels to start buying at are between 12 and 16. I would start buying near the bottom half of that range somewhere between 12 and 14, but if you are afraid of missing the upward move, buying near 16 is reasonable too.

I hope you enjoyed the post. Please let me know if you want a chart looked at or have any questions. See you next week!

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