10/11/2020 Markets up quite a bit this week. Looking like more upside in the near term, but I’m still bearish. Shorted BABA on Friday.

Hi everyone, welcome back. The markets look like they want to move quite a bit higher in the next one to two weeks, but I’m still cautiously bearish on all other time frames.

I started a half sized short position on BABA on market close Friday at 300. My stop loss is at 315 and my target profit is at 270. I don’t want to be net short on my short term trades since the market momentum is still up, so I plan to buy some AMGN for a quick swing trade (and maybe some DPZ).

Weekly chart of SPY below. Perhaps we retest the low to mid 350s this week before pulling back. Maybe we just continue to shoot upwards, I don’t know. I still favor and prefer a move down so I can add longs.

Daily chart of BABA below. Entry: 300, Stop loss: 315, Profit Exit: 270.

After examining my trading history, it looks like my success rate on shorts in an uptrend is about 35%, and the average gain is half the size of when I go long with the uptrend. Either way, I’m currently risking .5% of my account on this trade, and will only add more if it goes in my favor (moves down).

I’ll keep you all updated if I decide to take any additional trades this week. Have a nice rest of your day!


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