6/21/2021 Stopped out of HPQ, TJX, and CAT. Entered a long position in C on Friday at 68.25. Loss streak at 7.

Hi everyone. I hope you had a nice week.

I had a nice week – I hung out with some friends and played some poker at a local casino this week. My job search is going poorly so I’m brainstorming ideas to reopen a company similar to one I previously started.

Back to stocks. My current loss streak extends to 7 after I got stopped out of 3 positions this week. Luckily risk was managed properly, so I’m only down about 4% after these 7 trades. The reason I’m not down closer to 7% is because TWTR stock is still doing pretty well.

I entered C (Citigroup bank) at 68.25 on Friday. It’s had a nasty 12 down days in a row, but still remains in a longer term uptrend. I expect the price to resume it’s uptrend within a week or it will likely continue rapidly declining, in which case I’ll be stopped out.

C daily stock below. I successfully traded the pullback in January this year, and this drop feels somewhat similar. The risk to reward is about 1 to 3. Will this be my 8th loss in a row or will I get a win here? Let’s see what next week brings.

6/15/2021 Sold half of TJX position at a small loss to buy a half position (0.5% risk) in CAT.

Hi everyone. I decided to buy CAT at market close today, but needed to sell something to free up funds to make the purchase.

I chose to sell half of my TJX position because it was doing the worst out of the other positions. Since I’m using a tight stop loss on CAT and want the ability to reenter if I get whipsawed, I only bought a half sized position.

TJX daily chart below. I entered at 66, 9 trading days ago, and sold half of the position at 65.4 today for a small loss (~0.1% of account).

CAT daily chart below. Notice the buying pressure from the 215-218 range the last couple days. I don’t think this trade will take very long to play out (<1 month), and I expect to get stopped out quickly if I get stopped out. If I get stopped out, I lose 0.5% of my total account value.

6/13/2021 Stopped out of NIO short position this week at 43.5, and no change to other positions. Looking at CAT and DE for going long.

Hi everyone, welcome back. I hope you had a nice weekend!

This week I got stopped out of NIO for a 0.5% loss to my total account value. It took a bit longer to lose money on the trade than with the XPEV short, which is somewhat useful information for the future. Maybe it’s better to short the weaker looking stock (between XPEV and NIO) rather than the one that looks strong because momentum tends to carry prices further than anticipated.

NIO daily chart below. This adds to my current loss streak of trades (4), which is uncomfortable, but isn’t something that is unexpected. My worst loss streak since I started trading is 11 losses in a row, which ended with 16 losses out of 17 trades. Luckily, I’m doing a good job of managing risk, so the drawdown to my account isn’t as bad as it could be.

I’m still holding HPQ, TJX, and TWTR long positions, although TJX is behaving worse than anticipated. I am learning not to interfere with the original plan, so I will avoid making changes to these positions.

Some new stocks that passed my stock screener this week are CAT and DE. These stocks are highly correlated, so if I went long, I’d either do a half sized position in each (like with NIO and XPEV), or a full sized position in just one.

CAT stock below. Entering long at or slightly below current prices with a stop loss around the 205-210 range presents a decent opportunity if we plan to sell in the mid to high 240s. The last 4 pullbacks after a new high were never this large, so this could be the start of a trend reversal.

DE daily chart below. The chart looks similar to CAT, but the drop isn’t as violent.

Let’s see what happens next week. Volatility on the indexes has been quite low, so I don’t expect many large swings.

6/5/2021 Stopped out of XPEV short this week. Still holding TWTR, TJX, and HPQ long, and NIO short. Indexes near all-time highs.

Hi everyone, I added some positions this week, and got stopped out of my XPEV short position one day after entering.

XPEV daily chart below. XPEV was a half sized short position, and I’m still holding a half sized short position on NIO.

TWTR daily chart below. It had a nice upside move on Friday (following the QQQ), and my original plan is still in place.

TJX daily chart below. I entered at 66 on Wednesday, and it looks like it’s bottoming here.

HPQ daily chart below. The stock has moved up a decent amount since my entry, and usually these are the trades that work out the best for me. I haven’t decided if I want to sell a little before my profit exit (at 32) or hold for my greedy profit exit at 33.

SPY daily chart below. I’m neutral / bearish here on the index, but will still hold my swing positions long. Let’s see what happens next week.

6/2/2021 Went long TJX at 65.98 and HPQ at 29.78. Shorted half sized position in NIO at 41.16 and XPEV at 35. All positions were market on close orders.

Hi everyone, I took four new positions at market close today. I’ve been looking at HPQ, and decided to take a stab at it today. I also went long on TJX, and shorted a half sized position on NIO and XPEV. NIO and XPEV move together, so I shorted half for each stock.

HPQ daily chart below. Original profit exit was the gap fill at 32, but I decided to change it to 33. I expect to hold the trade for 1 to 15 trading days.

TJX daily chart below. I feel scared entering long here, but the risk reward is good and the stock tends to reverse after a pullback this size. This trade will likely take longer than HPQ to play out, especially if I don’t get stopped out right away.

NIO daily chart below. I took a half sized long position, and I’m not very confident that this and the XPEV trade will work out, but let’s see what happens.

XPEV daily chart below. I’m risking 2 dollars per share to make 8, so I need to be right 1 in 5 times to break even.

Thanks for reading, and I hope the rest of your week goes well.

5/30/2021 Stopped out of PTON at 108 on Wednesday for a loss. Indexes up 1-2% this week. HPQ looking good for a long entry at current price levels.

Hi everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend!

I was surprised when I got stopped out of my PTON short position at 108 on Wednesday. I thought it would take at least a week for the trade to play out, but it happened in just one day.

PTON daily chart below. I took a max loss when I got stopped out (1% of my account).

I’ve been looking at some charts for going long, but they all made significant upward moves this week, so I didn’t enter any positions. I think my overall view of market valuations is stopping me from taking trades on the long side, which is generally not good for swing trading. My average holding period for trades is about 1-3 weeks, so being scared that the market will crash if I buy now is quite foolish.

HPQ showed up on my stock screener this week for a pullback entry. It dropped quite hard on earnings, but the stock is still in a longer term uptrend. It follows my strategy of buying up trending stocks that have pulled back.

HPQ daily chart below. Ideally we want to enter a little bit lower around 28 which is ~5% lower, but entering now would work too.

If we hit 28, I’ll buy at least a half sized position, with a stop loss at 26.5 and a profit exit near the gap fill at 32.

I’ll look through some more charts next week and see if anything is worth trading. I’ll keep in mind that being scared of lofty market valuations is likely hurting my trading returns.

Please enjoy your week!

5/23/2021 Indexes flat this week. Covered QQQ short for a loss (stopped out), still holding TWTR and looking at going long on some tickers.

Hi everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend!

I got stopped out of QQQ this week (only held for 2 days), and I’m still holding TWTR.

QQQ daily chart below. I still think there’s better odds (and better risk/reward) that we move lower, but my recent short trades have drastically underperformed my long trades, so I’ll look for opportunities to go long instead of short.

The TWTR trade is working out and I have plans for adding to the position if we continue higher.

TWTR daily chart below:

I have 12 tickers that look good for going long at or near current prices.

Here is the list: M, SQ, KSS, DIS, ICE, BA, PDD, INTC, T, NKE, MU, PINS. I’m most likely to go long on M and SQ.

My previous M trade went well, but I had to exit due to earnings. It has pulled back a bit and is looking good again for going long. It seems to like to recover after closing below the 50 day moving average. I want to be long near 16-16.5 with a target near 19-20 and stop loss near 15. M daily chart below:

Another good long candidate is SQ. It has been following Bitcoin’s movements quite closely recently. It is right near support. Usually this many tests of a support zone means it will break, but risk/reward favors going long here so I am likely to enter long on this position soon.

SQ daily chart below: The average move (last 4 times) after hitting the 190-200 zone is 66 points up. A profit exit near 240-250 (40-50+ points) would be plenty with the amount of risk we are taking (10-15 point stop loss).

KSS daily chart below. This is in the same sector as M, meaning they probably move together. Going long on both M and KSS might not be a great idea. If I had to pick one to swing long, it would be M because I’ve traded it before and have some experience with its price movements.

Let’s see what happens next week. A large gap down (>1%) in the indexes on Monday would provide good long opportunities.

5/18/2021 Shorted half sized position in QQQ at 321.5 in after hours. Tight stop loss at 327.5. Out for loss if we close above 325.

I shorted a half sized position of QQQ in after hours today. I will exit for a loss if we close above 325. The actual dollar amount for the short position is very large, but it’s only a half sized position because the stop loss is very tight.

Entry: 321.5

Stop loss: 327.5

Profit Exit: 303

Risk to Reward: 1 to 3 (6 to 18.5)

QQQ daily chart below.