It looks like we will have more upside next week because futures are up a lot as of 5:30 PM Eastern Time (Sunday night).
Here’s something interesting I noticed when I pulled up the weekly chart of SPY. Notice how the index made a higher high in 2018, but the RSI was lower when it made that new high.
As you can see today, the index continues to push closer and closer to all-time highs, yet the RSI is only around 57. I’m still sticking to my prediction that the market will be negative in 2019, and that we won’t reach new all-time highs this year. For the shorter term outlook, I suspect we will move a bit higher or stay around this price.
The last few weeks I’ve been quite bearish, but quite the opposite has happened. We are now approaching all-time highs, so I’m now neutral and don’t know which direction we will go.
Above are some levels to watch for in the weekly chart of SPY. 280-290 is the resistance zone where most people are looking to sell, and the major support level is near 250 which was 2018 February lows.
I’m neutral now, and my prediction is that we stay within the 250 to 280 zone for a while. In otherwords, I think we move sideways and stay rangebound.
See you next week!
Greetings, let’s look at some weekly charts.
Here’s the weekly chart of SPY. We still have some more upside to go before we reach strong overhead resistance in the 280-290 zone. Because of that, I think we could still go up another 10 points before starting our next leg lower. I don’t think we will reach new highs this year.
Here’s the weekly chart of QQQ. We’ve already reached the first resistance level near 175, so I suspect QQQ will drop before SPY drops (or drop more than SPY). Like SPY, I don’t think QQQ will reach new highs this year.
Good luck trading, see you next week!
Hi everyone, I hope you are having a great weekend and can maybe enjoy some football (if you watch that is.)
In terms of stocks, there isn’t much to update since I still think we will drop and retest the lows we made in December. For QQQ, that would be around 145, SPY near 235, and DIA near 220. Of course this process will likely take a while (probably a few months).
Above is the weekly chart of SPY. I suspect we will retest the price range highlighted in the rectangle above. That price range is about 235-240. Of course, we could easily head towards 280 now, but I suspect we won’t get much higher than that in 2019.
Hi everyone! Stocks moved sideways this week so there’s not much to update from last week. I’m expecting downside next week.
Here’s the weekly chart of QQQ. We have stalled near 165, but we could make it up to 170 before dropping.
QQQ on the weekly chart is nearing overhead resistance in the 170-175 range. I’m expecting a drop starting next week that brings us to the bottom of the trendline near 140. This will probably take anywhere from 3-6 weeks if the index does start to drop.
SPY still has more room for upside until it runs into resistance. The resistance zone is in the 275 to 280ish range. I don’t expect SPY will go above 280 during 2019.
See you next week.
QQQ, along with the SPY and DIA, are now well above the February lows. Shorts are likely trapped now and may start to cover their positions. As a result, I think we will continue to move upwards towards the 170 level (another 5% up or so), until we start our next leg lower.
Since we’ve broken down below the February lows on high volume, I think we will move lower for 2019 and work our way down to 135 or 110.
Here’s the SPY on the monthly chart. The two levels of support are at around 215 and 180. 180 is a much stronger support level, and I think we could test 180 in 2019.