Hi everyone, welcome back. This post is a bit late this week because I’ve been busy with some personal stuff.
I’m still holding my WBA swing trade, but will sell soon because earnings are coming up. BABA had a nice bounce today, but at this point it’s probably better for me if it drops to 130 (my last limit order) because then my expected long term returns are higher.
INTC and ABBV look like good long term holds (5-10 years+) because of the stability of the company from its’ cash flows. They both have a nice stable dividend as well.
INTC weekly chart below. I still really want to start my stock position in the 40-45 range, but that is about 20-25% lower from current prices.
ABBV weekly chart below. I want my average price to be at or below 90. However, that is still quite a bit lower, and the stock has a nice dividend yield of around 5% so I may start the position near current prices.
Hi everyone, welcome back. Markets continue a little lower this week, and look to open quite a bit lower tomorrow (Monday).
SPY daily chart below. Risk reward favors going long at market open for a day trade. A tight stop (no more than 0.5% of index price) is good. You would sell at market close or if the ~1% gap is filled.
I bought more DOYU because of its fundamentals and also because the technicals look decent. I bought my first position at $5.54 about 2 months ago (1% of my total account value), and now I’ve more than doubled the dollar amount of the investment by buying at $3.64. It is now ~2.5% of my total account value.
Book value is around $3.20 per share, so I don’t expect the price to go much below $3. I have another limit order at $3 which would make the position ~4% of my total account value.
DOYU daily chart below.
Hopefully my BABA limit order at 150 will fill tomorrow or sometime next week. My other limit order is still at 130, and I have slightly more cash if we continue even lower than 130 (like to 100).
Hi everyone, welcome back. Indexes dropped a little this week. Let’s look at the SPY (S&P500 index).
SPY daily chart below. The pattern has been a bounce from near the 50 day moving average (blue line below). Will this pattern work again this time?
I bought a full sized position in ACAD at 16.69 last week in my Roth IRA. Risk reward seems like a 3:1, ACAD could triple to near 50, or go to 0. I bought because of the price and because Baker Bros still own a huge stake in it.
ACAD daily chart below. I plan to hold for up to 5 years, but it could be near 50 within a couple years.
I didn’t buy any INTC for a long term hold, because I didn’t like my original plan after thinking about it more. I will likely still buy some INTC in the future, especially if it drops from current prices to the 40-45 zone.
INTC weekly chart below. I like the dividend yield and the cash flows of the company. It’s trading at a reasonable 12 P/E ratio, so when I buy it, I plan to sell it when it gets near a 25 – 30 P/E ratio.
I hope you had a nice weekend, and I’ll see you next week.
Hi everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend. The indexes grinded slightly higher this week and made new all time highs. Valuations are still extremely expensive, but I’m looking to buy some ACAD and INTC. ACAD is a pharmaceutical company that Baker Bros own a lot of, and INTC is trading at a 12 P/E ratio and 3 P/S ratio which are reasonable valuations.
ACAD weekly chart below. I was planning on buying it near 22 and 20, but didn’t buy any. Now it’s trading at just under 17 so I’ll buy it in my Roth IRA. I will enter a 2% of my account sized position because that’s the amount I’m willing to lose if the stock goes to 0.
Since the stock is trading in the lower end of the range near 13-17.5, I’m planning on holding and selling n the upper end of the range near ~40-50.
INTC weekly chart below. I plan to have a position that is up to 15% of my total account size. The stock pays a decent 2.6% dividend per year and is trading at a 12 P/E ratio and 3 P/S ratio which are reasonable. I will buy a 5% of my account sized position next week, and the remaining 10% sometime later near the bottom of the range between 40-45 (highlighted in the chart below). I plan to sell when the stock is 2-3 times higher than my average purchase price, or when the P/E ratio is between 25-30.
I covered my Aapl short position on Friday because it closed above 147. I exited before my stop loss or profit exit were hit because the trade wasn’t playing out as originally planned (took too long to make a move).
Aapl daily chart below. I took a small loss.
I bought more BABA at 165.49 this week for a long term hold (1+ year minimum). My position is a little bigger than twice the size of the original position that I started around 196. I plan to hold the stock for up to 10 years.
BABA daily chart below:
BABA weekly chart below. My average purchase price is now 179.49 so I’m down a bit. I still have limit orders at 150 and 130.
Hi everyone, welcome back to the blog. I hope you had a nice week.
Markets ended slightly higher this week, with volatility relatively low. I suspect a somewhat larger 5-10% correction is coming, and am still holding my AAPL short as a result, which I’m down a bit on. I’m still holding WBA, but sold M slightly above my profit exit at 20.24 (profit exit was at 20).
Since the M trades have worked out extremely well when I trade exactly opposite to where I think it’ll go, I’ll continue to trade the stock this way and see what happens. Of course, I’ll still follow my trading plan and use proper risk management.
M daily chart below. I’ve circled the area where I was extremely bullish (circle on the right), and the 2 times I was extremely bearish (middle and left circle). It seems like I have a good “feeling” of when the stock will go up.
AAPL daily chart below. I’m currently down about 0.35% of my total account value on this trade, and will exit at the end of this week if I’m still down (stock above 147).
I’m looking at going long AMZN soon. AMZN would be a nice trade to go long on because it is highly correlated with AAPL, so these two trades would hedge each other (since I’m short AAPL).
AMZN daily chart below. It seems like this pullback has a good chance to be over if we compare it to the size of the previous 2 pullbacks. One way to trade it is to go long now or very soon with a wider stop loss (stop near 3100, and profit exit near 3700). Another way to trade it is to wait for a price rebound, then buy on the next small pullback and use a tighter stop loss below the most recent low.
Like always, I’ll keep you updated if I decide to take any new trades.
I haven’t made any changes to my WBA and M positions, although I will be selling M soon because earnings are on 8/19.
I’m up slightly on my AAPL short position, and plan to hold for about a month.
AAPL daily chart below. The stop loss is in a great spot because the trade is completely invalidated if 152 is hit.
BABA monthly chart below. We can still capitulate lower, but my guess is we are getting quite close to a bottom. My current position is 1/5th size but still rather large because I’m willing to risk 30% of my account (if stock goes to 0) on this longer term trade. I plan to hold for a minimum of 1 year, but up to 5 years or more.
Hi everyone. I’ve been looking at shorting something and since Apple just had earnings and is the biggest component of the QQQ, I decided to short it at 147 today. I also bought a 1/5th sized position in BABA yesterday at 196.29 as planned. You can find the BABA chart with my trade plan from the previous blog post.
Aapl daily chart below. It has dropped the last few times after earnings, so I shorted at 147 today. It also acts as a hedge against my long positions.
Hi everyone, welcome back. I’m still holding M and WBA in my swing trading account, along with my biotechs (PRLD and TLIS) and DIDI in my Roth IRA. No changes to those positions.
Chinese stocks, especially BABA, look very good for a longer term entry (1+ year hold). I don’t think there’s any bankruptcy risk. Delisting risk is very low too. Because of these reasons, I’m willing to risk up to 30% of my account on BABA.
BABA daily chart below. I will be buying 25% of my total position on Monday at market open in my Roth IRA, and 25% more at 170, 150, and 130 in my swing trading account. Total combined risk will be 30% of my total account value. My minimal holding period is 1 year, but I might hold up to 2-5+ years.
BABA weekly chart below showing levels for my 3 other limit orders.
Please enjoy your week and stay safe. Good luck trading.