5/10/2018 The S&P500 breaks through a key resistance level as Apple continues to climb. BABA reaches a quarter shy of 200 and reverses sharply lower. NVDA smashes earnings but drops over 3% anyways.

Fun Fact #46

Since a stock price drops the same amount as the dividend declared, you may be wondering why companies even give out dividends at all.  I recently learned in my accounting class that dividends are a “signal” that the company is financially healthy. 

Growing dividends = healthy company.  It’s as simple as that! 


 

Market Stocks 5_10_2018.PNG


 

SPY 5_10_2018.PNG

If SPY can sustain the breakout above 271, we will likely see a test of the resistance zone from 275-280.  

BABA 5_10_2018.PNG

BABA continues to have trouble pushing through the resistance zone from 197.5-200.  An upward break above 200 might send the stock soaring above 205.  I expect some profit taking soon.  

5/8/2018 Markets flat as markets fail to break through resistance. QQQ to retest 162 by the end of the week?

Fun Fact #44

When a company buys back its own shares (share buyback), the common misconception is that the EPS will increase.  The EPS is Earnings “Per Share,” or Earnings/Shares, so if the company bought back shares, lowering the denominator, wouldn’t the EPS go up? 

Unfortunately, the denominator of EPS is actually the “weighted average number of shares,” meaning the number of shares is averaged over a year.  Thus, buying back shares will not impact the EPS ratio. 


 

Market Stocks 5_8_2018.PNG


 

QQQ 5_8_2018 Daily.PNG

I think that if QQQ doesn’t close green tomorrow, we will probably see a retest of 162 by the end of this week or early next week.  Notice how the downtrend line from the March highs intercept with the 162 support level.  That makes the this level even more important.  If QQQ did drop to 162, that’s a drop of another 4 points.  Since 4 points is only 2.5%, this drop could happen in one day. 

The reason why I’m bearish all of a sudden is because I think Apple will see a pullback due to aggressive profit takers.  Also as a side note, I just sold my Apple position today. 

See you tomorrow!

5/7/2018 Technology stocks lead the way higher. Time to take profits on Apple (AAPL)?

Fun Fact #43

Warren Buffett still plays Ping-Pong!  He played against Bill Gates at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting today. Source. 


 

QQQ daily 5_7_2018.PNG

QQQ is running into overhead resistance. We will have to see if QQQ can push through this level tomorrow or if we pullback from here.

AAPL 5_7_2018

Apple is the largest component of QQQ, and it looks like it has found a temporary top.  It looks good to buy in the 177.5-182.5 zone, although I favor the high 170s since it offers a better risk to reward. 

BABA 5_7_2018.PNG

One more push, and BABA will be at 200 again! Unless you think we break out over 205, it’s probably a good idea to take partial or full profits near this price. 

5/6/2018 Weekly Analysis and Stocks to Watch!

QQQ Weekly 5_6_2018.PNG

The weekly chart of QQQ is above.  I’ve circled the lower tails displaying buying pressure, as well as highlighting a divergent high.  A divergent high means that the index/stock made a higher high, but the RSI indicator made a lower low.  That is bearish.  However, we are still in an uptrend, so it’s generally a better idea to buy on dips instead of short selling high points. 

SPY weekly analysis 5_6_2018.PNG

The weekly chart of SPY is currently stuck between the support and resistance area.  That makes the direction unclear, although currently, there’s more evidence supporting a move up. 

BABA weekly chart 5_6_2018.PNG

Look at the weekly chart of BABA above.  I’ve mentioned in multiple posts that BABA was a good buy in the 165-175 zone, and a good sell in the 190-200 zone.  BABA is now approaching the 190 area, which represents a good price to sell at.  However, I believe BABA can hit 200 on this move up before pulling back because BABA had good earnings last Thursday.  Note that a break and close above 205 on the weekly chart would be very bullish.  

MU weekly 5_6_2018.PNG

Here’s the weekly chart of MU.  I think MU is a good long term hold and represents a good swing trading opportunity here.  As long as MU holds 45 on the weekly chart, I think we retest the highs near 60.  Do note that we’ve made a divergent high.  Like I described in the QQQ chart near the top of the page, this is bearish.  As you can see in the chart, prices fell from the recent high. 

AAPL 5_6_2018 Weekly Chart.PNG

Apple broke out to an all time high (ATH) after selling off hard in the last few months. Although Apple is up 13.25% in just one week, the chart hints that Apple has enough juice for another move up before pulling back.  If we move up, I suspect a test of 190 since it’s a nice round number. 

CMG weekly 5_6_2018.PNG

Chipotle (CMG) recently broke out upwards after releasing a very strong earnings report.  Judging from the price action and moving averages, I think CMG will pullback to at least the 380-400 area from a weekly perspective, which is another 5-10% down.  Of course, the upward momentum could easily carry the stock higher too, but my bet is down. 

Thanks for reading!

 

5/4/2018 Markets rocket higher, with Apple leading the way and reaching a new all time high. BABA had a wild swing today, but closed significantly higher.

Fun Fact #42

A deer market is a flat/neutral market, being neither a bull nor bear market.


 

Market Stocks 5_4_2018.PNG

Apple hit my target 3 weeks ahead of schedule… Interesting. I’ve put in a target for BABA now that earnings are out of the way.

From the current look of things, it looks like the markets won’t drop unless some unexpected event happens. Perhaps most of the above stocks will reach my “If wrong” targets instead.

This morning, I woke up to see BABA in the premarket hovering near 191 due to an earnings beat. By 8:30 AM, BABA was red (dropped 4% from where I was watching it), which was quite uncomfortable. After checking back on it at the end of the day, I was pleasantly surprised 🙂

Warren Buffett announced a purchase of 75 million additional shares of Apple (AAPL) in Q1 this year. That sent the stock flying today, carrying the entire market up with it. Job payroll numbers came in much lower than expected, which I guess was “good news.”

BABA 5_4_2018.PNG

Notice the extremely high volume today. Although the target is set for 5/25, I could see BABA hitting that 200 target within 5-7 trading days. If I’m wrong, I expect BABA to retest 175, which is the bottom black horizontal line in the chart above.

AAPL 5_4_2018.PNG

Apple has hit my 183 target 3 weeks ahead of schedule. Although I could see it moving higher in the coming weeks (perhaps to the 188-190 level), taking partial or full profits here seems appropriate. After glancing at the last few times when Apple made a new all time high, it seems to either rocket higher, or have a significant correction.

I look forward to updating my blog with weekly charts this weekend! Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

5/2/2018 Markets sell off despite Feds not raising interest rates. It’s not a good sign for the bulls when the market moves down on “good news.”

Fun Fact #40

Did you know that France cut Cryptocurrency taxes by 50% a couple days ago? 


 

Market Stocks 5_2_2018.PNG

I’ve updated targets for May 25th, which is 3 weeks from this Friday. As you can see, I’m medium term bearish after today’s price action. Despite Feds not hiking rates, the market still sold off. I am still bullish on Facebook and Apple though, as I think their earnings reports were really strong and will propel them upwards. 

I’ve also added an “If wrong” target, meaning if the market decides to rally (against my prediction), I expect the market to reach those targets by May 25th. 

AAPL 5_2_2018.PNG

My May 25th target for Apple is the top of the trading range, which is at 183. If Apple decides to sell off with the market, I expect it to gap fill back to 169. 

FB analysis 5_2_2018.PNG

I think Facebook has a good chance of climbing to 185 within the next three weeks, highlighted by the upper horizontal line in the chart above. In case I’m wrong and Facebook sells off, I think it will drop to the previous support/resistance level at 168

QQQ 5_2_2018.PNG

Lastly, let’s look at QQQ. I think there’s a better chance we hit 155 before we gap fill to 171. I do not think the bull market is over, but I think QQQ will retest 155 before moving back to the 170s. 

5/1/2018 Apple Pops to 175 on earnings beat, dragging QQQ and the rest of the market up. Apple will probably close below 175 tomorrow.

Fun Fact #39

Today, Facebook (FB) announced a new dating feature, and Match stock (MTCH) tanks over 22%. 

Market Stocks 5_1_2018.PNG

Targets will be updated tomorrow now that Apple has reported earnings 😀


 

QQQ 5_1_2018.PNG

QQQ printed a nice strong candle today due to Apple moving higher. I expect Apple to close below 175 tomorrow simply because it usually moves down after earnings beats.

QQQ was near 163.5 in after hours but I expect it to retest 162 tomorrow.

Remember to check back tomorrow for updated targets! Have a great evening -Nathan

4/30/2018 Apple goes up almost 2% as the rest of the market slumps. Be on a lookout for Apple earnings tomorrow after hours.

Fun Fact #38

As a continuation from the last fun fact, the Chinese stock market is only open for 4 hours compared to the 6.5 hours that the U.S. is open. I think having a 1-2 hour break for lunch in the U.S. market makes sense.

Market stocks 4_30_2018.PNG


 

For reference, I will be adding to my MU position for the long term (10+ years hold) as I believe the company is financially stable and highly profitable. The only concern is that the memory market experiences many boom and bust cycles, which could be devastating for the stock. 

QQQ 4_30_2018.PNG

QQQ sold off a decent amount today, but tomorrow is the day that really matters. Apple will be reporting earnings around 4 PM tomorrow after the market closes. I honestly can’t see it going down after earnings, but that’s just me. I believe that the bad news has setup Apple for very low expectations, so any sort of good news will have the stock price sky rocket 4-5% to 172+. Also, I’m thinking a lot of people already sold before earnings. 

AAPL 4_30_2018.PNG

Apple broke down through the 165 support level, but has now bounced back and closed right at that level again. This false breakout (assuming it holds), will cause the stock price to spike up as shorts panic cover. 

4/23/2018 Markets mostly steady. Looking like we will have a nice move upwards tomorrow. Google earnings were ‘average.’

Fun Fact #33

Did you know that Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla) has recently been sleeping on the Tesla factory floor to save time? And yes, Elon Musk is a god. Here’s the CNBC story


 

Market Stocks 4_23_2018.PNG

Sorry for the late post today. Life decided to slap me in the face, but I decided to get back up and slap it right back. I figured as long as I update my blog before midnight Eastern Time, we are still good to go. I still have 30 minutes to go as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s discuss some stocks! 😀

Although the major indexes didn’t drop much today, the smaller cap stocks like MU and SQ didn’t perform very well. Chinese stocks also didn’t do too well either as you can see from BABA’s stock price. 

I think MU is looking good to buy in the 46-49 range. You would place your stop loss 3-4 dollars below the entry, and a profit exit in the 57-62 dollar range. Note that “SL” in the chart below stands for “stop loss.”

MU analysis 4_23_2018.PNG

The daily chart of QQQ is below. Read the text below the chart for details.

QQQ 4_23_2018.PNG

As long as QQQ stays near or above 162, I think we see higher prices ahead. We are currently right at that level which is quite scary. Another significant red close tomorrow will probably make me bearish in the short term. Otherwise, I stay cautiously bullish. 

On a final note, let’s look at Apple (AAPL). 

AAPL 4_23_2018.PNG

Apple broke through a key support level of 165 today, but closed back above that level. Notice how the 165 level also corresponds with the 200 day moving average (the red, upward sloping line above). 

4/22/2018 A look at the major indexes. Targets updated for Friday May 4th.

Fun Fact #32

Did you know that at the Seattle Amazon headquarters, there are 6,000 dogs that share the work space with the employees? They even have a doggie deck 😀 Source


 

4_22_2018 Market Stocks.PNG

I’ve updated my targets for May 4th, 2018. I’ve refrained from updating the targets for stocks that have earnings in the next week because earnings are extremely unpredictable. However, I do favor a run-up prior to earnings, which I reflect in my targets for QQQ, DIA, SPY, AAPL, and BABA. 


 

I’m cautiously optimistic because the indexes have dropped to a support level that I believe will hold, but if they don’t hold, look out below! I also like buying the first pullback after a strong move upwards, which would be right now. 

QQQ 4_22_2018 Daily.PNG

The daily chart of QQQ is above. The index has gap filled the 163 gap with a rapid downward move largely due to Apple. The last time QQQ had a fast rally up from the February lows, we pulled back to this level (162-164) before moving to all time highs around 175. I think something similar could happen this time, but earnings from the big companies need to be good next week. I’ve drawn a horizontal line in at 160, since this is the weekly trend channel support. As long as QQQ holds that level, I believe we have a good chance to at least gap fill to 170 within two-three weeks. Take a look at the weekly chart of QQQ below.

QQQ 4_22_2018 Weekly.PNG

I’ve highlighted the touches of the trend channels with the colored arrows in the weekly chart of QQQ above. Notice how good this trend channel is at capturing price movement. 

DIA analysis 4_22_2018 Weekly

On the weekly timeframe, DIA (the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones) is stuck right at the middle of the support and resistance levels. This makes it hard for me to make a decision on the direction, but I favor it running up to the 255 resistance level rather than it hitting the 235 support level. This is a tough call to make. 

SPY weekly 4_22_2018.PNG

Notice how the weekly chart of SPY (the ETF that tracks the S&P500) looks identical to the DIA chart. We are stuck in the middle of the support and resistance level so it’s hard to pick a direction. 

To wrap up, I think the indexes have a good chance to move up early next week since they are currently at support levels and I expect good earnings from the big technology companies like Google, Amazon, and Facebook. From a longer weekly perspective , the SPY and DIA are still in the middle of the trading range, so patient traders looking for good prices should wait to buy near the bottom of that range, and look to sell at the top of that range. That would be buying at roughly 235 on the DIA, and 255 on the SPY. You would sell near 255 and 280 respectively. 

Have a great Sunday!