5/2/2018 Markets sell off despite Feds not raising interest rates. It’s not a good sign for the bulls when the market moves down on “good news.”

Fun Fact #40

Did you know that France cut Cryptocurrency taxes by 50% a couple days ago? 


 

Market Stocks 5_2_2018.PNG

I’ve updated targets for May 25th, which is 3 weeks from this Friday. As you can see, I’m medium term bearish after today’s price action. Despite Feds not hiking rates, the market still sold off. I am still bullish on Facebook and Apple though, as I think their earnings reports were really strong and will propel them upwards. 

I’ve also added an “If wrong” target, meaning if the market decides to rally (against my prediction), I expect the market to reach those targets by May 25th. 

AAPL 5_2_2018.PNG

My May 25th target for Apple is the top of the trading range, which is at 183. If Apple decides to sell off with the market, I expect it to gap fill back to 169. 

FB analysis 5_2_2018.PNG

I think Facebook has a good chance of climbing to 185 within the next three weeks, highlighted by the upper horizontal line in the chart above. In case I’m wrong and Facebook sells off, I think it will drop to the previous support/resistance level at 168

QQQ 5_2_2018.PNG

Lastly, let’s look at QQQ. I think there’s a better chance we hit 155 before we gap fill to 171. I do not think the bull market is over, but I think QQQ will retest 155 before moving back to the 170s. 

4/26/2018 Facebook surges over 9%, and Chipotle jumps almost 25%. Amazon and Intel are up about 10% today. As a result, QQQ is over 164 in after hours. Lastly, MU is doing well :)

Fun Fact #36

Since Amazon surged after-hours today on a huge earnings beat, why don’t we look at Bezo’s dog? Damn, that is one cute puppers. 

Image result for bezos dog

Market Stocks 4_26_2018

I’ve removed my three targets on the major indexes because I realized having them there made no sense until after earnings season is done. I did think we would bounce, but not this hard. My portfolio aint complaining 🙂

Amazon and Intel surged after hours. We will look at their charts after tomorrow’s close. Microsoft also beat earnings, and is up a decent amount after hours (2-3%). Also, Chipotle managed to go up nearly 25% after good earnings yesterday.

Let’s look at the daily chart of Chipotle below. 

CMG Daily 4_26_2018.PNG

Notice the strength of today’s move. Not only did Chipotle (CMG) gap up, but also moved up another 30 dollars on the day. Additionally, CMG closed near the day’s high, displaying further strength. 

CMG weekly 4_26_2018.PNG

Here’s CMG on the weekly time frame. Although I rarely trade with the RSI (Relative Strength Index), I did observe that when Chipotle reaches or nears the overbought RSI reading on the weekly chart, it tends to drop significantly.

I will add CMG onto the watchlist tomorrow, along with AMD. 

QQQ 4_26_2018.PNG

QQQ ran up past the 162 overhead resistance today, and then closed a penny below 162. However, QQQ closed after-hours at 164.20, which I circled in the chart above. 

Have a great day!

 

4/25/2018 Chipotle (CMG), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surge 10% after earnings beat. Facebook (FB) pops up roughly 7% on earnings beat, dragging QQQ up ~1.2% in afterhours trading.

Fun Fact #35

Did you know that “hodler” is the misspelling for a “holder” of bitcoins? I think it’s funny to call bitcoin buyers “hodlers” instead of using the term “bag holders.” 

Market Stocks 4_25_2018.PNG

Since earnings season affects all stocks (as you can see with Facebook’s massive earnings beat dragging up the entire market afterhours) it’s basically gambling for me to set targets right now. From price action alone, I’m bearish on the QQQ. However, I would only consider shorting QQQ if it reaches 162. For bulls, I think it’s good to hold until QQQ hits 162, or just sit on cash to add shares when QQQ tests the 150-154 support zone. 

Chipotle (CMG) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up roughly 10% in afterhours after solid earnings beats. Today was a good day for the bulls. 

Yesterday (4/24/2018), I gave my analysis of QQQ on TradingView, a great charting platform. My username is bigfry on there as well. Anyways, below is what I said:

“Although I think we are currently due for a nice bounce back upwards, I wouldn’t be surprised to see QQQ rapidly drop and retest the 150-154 zone in the next few days.

The main reason I think shorting near 162 makes sense is because QQQ could not sustain the breakout of the 162 level. Failed breakouts move strongly in the opposite direction of the previous trend because a lot of traders are trapped near the previous highs, and panic sell out of fear of losing even more.

If QQQ does rally upwards, and you like short selling, I think shorting at or near 162 with a stop loss near 167 makes sense. You profit target would be the 152-154 range. This trade has a RR of about 2, which is quite good.

For a reference, I don’t like short selling uptrending stocks, so I’m waiting to buy QQQ in the 150-154 support zone.”


 

I’m glad MU bounced quite hard today, as it shows that sellers are losing pressure, and buyers are taking control of the price action again.  Also, I’d look like an idiot if MU kept dropping after I said yesterday that MU was a “screaming buy.”

QQQ 4_25_2018.PNG

Here’s the QQQ. The horizontal line at 154 represents the bottom of the trading range, meaning this level is a very important support level. 162 is a minor resistance level that QQQ had trouble pushing through in the past. 

The markets actually sold off quite hard in the morning, but clawed back the losses and closed slightly green.  I’ve noticed that in the last couple days, the market has sold off hard in the morning, but rallied towards the end of the day.  This is a sign of “smart money” moving in to buy stocks.  The “dumb money” represents the retail traders (like you and me, sorry).  Apparently we do the opposite of what we are “supposed” to do. 

I would like to get to know you better, so if you’d like, please shoot me a message on stocktwits or tradingview. You can also email me at nharwit@gmail.com. 

Good luck tomorrow, and have a great rest of your Wednesday!