7/18/2020 Overall market is up this week, but QQQ drops. Thinking of going long on $TSLA, $NFLX, $SQ, $NIO if the market drops (or these stocks drop).

Welcome back to the blog!

Stocks are still mostly grinding sideways or up slightly. Below is the weekly chart of SPY.

SPY weekly 7_18_2020

I don’t like prices up here for going long unless I was doing short weekly trades (less than 2 month holds). Over any longer time period (>2 months) and I think we are more likely to be lower than higher, we will see what happens. I’d want to be long near 300 and 275 for medium term swings (~3 month hold). Below I discuss some pullback trades I plan to go long on if SPY does pullback another 7% (to 300) and 15% (to 275).

I’m considering going long on Tesla, Netflix, Square, and/or Nio on any more sustained weakness for a short/medium term swing trade. For example, although I don’t like Tesla from a fundamental perspective at all, the trend is still up, and once they report earnings next week, it could present a nice “buy the dip” opportunity for a swing trade back up.

Same goes for Square, Nio and Netflix – although I think they are extremely expensive from most metrics, they present good short/medium term swing trading opportunities.

I plan to hedge my bets with a couple of shorts in the technology sector to reduce my overall sector risk when going long though. Below are the charts of Tesla, Netflix, Square, and Nio, and where I plan to enter.

Tesla daily chart below (long at 900-1000):

TSLA daily 7_19_2020

Netflix daily chart below (long at 400-450):

NFLX daily 7_19_2020

Square daily chart below (long in 80-90 range):

SQ daily chart 7_19_2020

Lastly, Nio daily chart below (long at 8-9):

NIO daily 7_19_2020

Enjoy the rest of the weekend, and see you next week (unless we get a large market sell-off and I swing long 🙂

4/16/2018 Markets Rally and Netflix spikes up 6% in after-hours trading

Fun Fact #27

Did you know that 1000 people own 40% of all the Bitcoins? These people are known as “Bitcoin Whales.” Whales refer to institutions or people that own so much Bitcoin that they can move the markets at will.

Market Stocks 4_16_2018

SPY 4_16_2018.PNG

Since all the charts of the indexes look similar, I will discuss SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P500 index, today.

SPY is running into overhead resistance in the 267-270 zone as you can see in the chart above. If SPY can break above this level, we will likely see a retest of the 275-280 level in the weeks following the breakout.

Although I am still bullish, I don’t think we can break above 270 until we start seeing more volume. My reasoning is that the bears will push the prices down since it’s easier to do with low volume. Buyers will also start taking profits at that level, which is why that zone acts as resistance.

I think we see more upside tomorrow since Netflix’s good earnings will pull the market up with it.

Please leave questions/comments/suggestions about my blog (or anything stock related) in the comments below. I will be glad to answer them. Thanks for reading!

4/13/2018 Markets gap up on bank earnings, but sell off in the afternoon due to the banks.

Fun Fact #26

Did you know that stocks can have negative beta? Beta measures how volatile a stock is compared to the overall market. The indexes have a standard Beta value of 1. If a stock is more volatile than the index, the Beta value will be greater than 1. If a stock is less volatile than the market, it will have a Beta between 0 and 1.

For example, AMD has a beta of 3.28, meaning that for every 1% the market moves up, AMD is expected to move up 3.28%. This also applies for when the market moves down.

Negative beta means that the stock is expected to move up when the market moves down and down when the market moves up. An example of a stock that has a negative beta is ABX, a gold related stock.

Market Stocks 4_13_2018.PNG

I added Microsoft (MSFT) to the list above because it is a large component of QQQ. NFLX hit my 315 target this morning on the gap up, but failed to hold that level by the end of the day. Micron Technology (MU) reached a high of 53.5 intra-day, which was 50 cents off my target. Unfortunately, MU closed quite a bit off its’ high of the day.

QQQ weekly 4_13_2018.PNG

Above is the weekly chart of QQQ. We’ve closed above 160, which is the crucial price level for the bulls to hold. The weekly chart is looking really good, but political uncertainty could result in a rapid move downwards. I’m still bullish with a price target of 170 in the next couple weeks.

Tomorrow I might post a monthly chart of QQQ along with some weekly charts of the other indexes/stocks.

Have a great weekend!