5/13/2018 Markets continue to look strong from a weekly perspective. It looks like we will retest the highs within the next month.

SPY weekly 5_13_2018.PNG

SPY closed the week above the key resistance level of 272.   I’m expecting further upside next week, but I think sellers will get aggressive near the 280 price range.   

 

DIA analysis 5_13_2018.PNG

DIA is still struggling to have a solid close above the 248 resistance level.  If there isn’t bad news next week, I think we can retest the resistance zone near 252-254.  

 

QQQ weekly 5_13_2018.PNG

QQQ is still the strongest of all the indexes.  QQQ is running into strong overhead resistance in the 170-172 zone.  Looking at just the price action, I think the upward momentum can carry QQQ to 172 next week.  

 

5/10/2018 The S&P500 breaks through a key resistance level as Apple continues to climb. BABA reaches a quarter shy of 200 and reverses sharply lower. NVDA smashes earnings but drops over 3% anyways.

Fun Fact #46

Since a stock price drops the same amount as the dividend declared, you may be wondering why companies even give out dividends at all.  I recently learned in my accounting class that dividends are a “signal” that the company is financially healthy. 

Growing dividends = healthy company.  It’s as simple as that! 


 

Market Stocks 5_10_2018.PNG


 

SPY 5_10_2018.PNG

If SPY can sustain the breakout above 271, we will likely see a test of the resistance zone from 275-280.  

BABA 5_10_2018.PNG

BABA continues to have trouble pushing through the resistance zone from 197.5-200.  An upward break above 200 might send the stock soaring above 205.  I expect some profit taking soon.  

5/6/2018 Weekly Analysis and Stocks to Watch!

QQQ Weekly 5_6_2018.PNG

The weekly chart of QQQ is above.  I’ve circled the lower tails displaying buying pressure, as well as highlighting a divergent high.  A divergent high means that the index/stock made a higher high, but the RSI indicator made a lower low.  That is bearish.  However, we are still in an uptrend, so it’s generally a better idea to buy on dips instead of short selling high points. 

SPY weekly analysis 5_6_2018.PNG

The weekly chart of SPY is currently stuck between the support and resistance area.  That makes the direction unclear, although currently, there’s more evidence supporting a move up. 

BABA weekly chart 5_6_2018.PNG

Look at the weekly chart of BABA above.  I’ve mentioned in multiple posts that BABA was a good buy in the 165-175 zone, and a good sell in the 190-200 zone.  BABA is now approaching the 190 area, which represents a good price to sell at.  However, I believe BABA can hit 200 on this move up before pulling back because BABA had good earnings last Thursday.  Note that a break and close above 205 on the weekly chart would be very bullish.  

MU weekly 5_6_2018.PNG

Here’s the weekly chart of MU.  I think MU is a good long term hold and represents a good swing trading opportunity here.  As long as MU holds 45 on the weekly chart, I think we retest the highs near 60.  Do note that we’ve made a divergent high.  Like I described in the QQQ chart near the top of the page, this is bearish.  As you can see in the chart, prices fell from the recent high. 

AAPL 5_6_2018 Weekly Chart.PNG

Apple broke out to an all time high (ATH) after selling off hard in the last few months. Although Apple is up 13.25% in just one week, the chart hints that Apple has enough juice for another move up before pulling back.  If we move up, I suspect a test of 190 since it’s a nice round number. 

CMG weekly 5_6_2018.PNG

Chipotle (CMG) recently broke out upwards after releasing a very strong earnings report.  Judging from the price action and moving averages, I think CMG will pullback to at least the 380-400 area from a weekly perspective, which is another 5-10% down.  Of course, the upward momentum could easily carry the stock higher too, but my bet is down. 

Thanks for reading!

 

4/22/2018 A look at the major indexes. Targets updated for Friday May 4th.

Fun Fact #32

Did you know that at the Seattle Amazon headquarters, there are 6,000 dogs that share the work space with the employees? They even have a doggie deck 😀 Source


 

4_22_2018 Market Stocks.PNG

I’ve updated my targets for May 4th, 2018. I’ve refrained from updating the targets for stocks that have earnings in the next week because earnings are extremely unpredictable. However, I do favor a run-up prior to earnings, which I reflect in my targets for QQQ, DIA, SPY, AAPL, and BABA. 


 

I’m cautiously optimistic because the indexes have dropped to a support level that I believe will hold, but if they don’t hold, look out below! I also like buying the first pullback after a strong move upwards, which would be right now. 

QQQ 4_22_2018 Daily.PNG

The daily chart of QQQ is above. The index has gap filled the 163 gap with a rapid downward move largely due to Apple. The last time QQQ had a fast rally up from the February lows, we pulled back to this level (162-164) before moving to all time highs around 175. I think something similar could happen this time, but earnings from the big companies need to be good next week. I’ve drawn a horizontal line in at 160, since this is the weekly trend channel support. As long as QQQ holds that level, I believe we have a good chance to at least gap fill to 170 within two-three weeks. Take a look at the weekly chart of QQQ below.

QQQ 4_22_2018 Weekly.PNG

I’ve highlighted the touches of the trend channels with the colored arrows in the weekly chart of QQQ above. Notice how good this trend channel is at capturing price movement. 

DIA analysis 4_22_2018 Weekly

On the weekly timeframe, DIA (the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones) is stuck right at the middle of the support and resistance levels. This makes it hard for me to make a decision on the direction, but I favor it running up to the 255 resistance level rather than it hitting the 235 support level. This is a tough call to make. 

SPY weekly 4_22_2018.PNG

Notice how the weekly chart of SPY (the ETF that tracks the S&P500) looks identical to the DIA chart. We are stuck in the middle of the support and resistance level so it’s hard to pick a direction. 

To wrap up, I think the indexes have a good chance to move up early next week since they are currently at support levels and I expect good earnings from the big technology companies like Google, Amazon, and Facebook. From a longer weekly perspective , the SPY and DIA are still in the middle of the trading range, so patient traders looking for good prices should wait to buy near the bottom of that range, and look to sell at the top of that range. That would be buying at roughly 235 on the DIA, and 255 on the SPY. You would sell near 255 and 280 respectively. 

Have a great Sunday!

4/16/2018 Markets Rally and Netflix spikes up 6% in after-hours trading

Fun Fact #27

Did you know that 1000 people own 40% of all the Bitcoins? These people are known as “Bitcoin Whales.” Whales refer to institutions or people that own so much Bitcoin that they can move the markets at will. 


 

Market Stocks 4_16_2018


 

SPY 4_16_2018.PNG

Since all the charts of the indexes look similar, I will discuss SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P500 index, today. 

SPY is running into overhead resistance in the 267-270 zone as you can see in the chart above. If SPY can break above this level, we will likely see a retest of the 275-280 level in the weeks following the breakout.

Although I am still bullish, I don’t think we can break above 270 until we start seeing more volume. My reasoning is that the bears will push the prices down since it’s easier to do with low volume. Buyers will also start taking profits at that level, which is why that zone acts as resistance. 

I think we see more upside tomorrow since Netflix’s good earnings will pull the market up with it. 

Please leave questions/comments/suggestions about my blog (or anything stock related) in the comments below. I will be glad to answer them. Thanks for reading!

3/29/2018 Review and Setups

Fun Fact #14

You might have wondered: Hey Nathan, what does your username mean? Did you know that my username has an interesting story, and can also teach you an important lesson regarding life and trading?

Click here for the story. 


 

3_29_2018 Market Stocks

All I have to say is: At least my 2 week targets don’t look as ridiculous after todays’ move. 

QQQ analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

QQQ had a nice close to the week. It looks like the bulls are in control again since we closed within the weekly trend channel. Remember that I kept stressing the 160 level? The volume was also larger than on March 26th, which suggests to me that either more people are covering their shorts, or more people are buying at these levels. It could also be both.

This could also be large fund managers killing puts, since there was a lot of put buying last week. This is also a reason why I don’t think we go down from here, or at least not much if we drop. If we break below 155, I think we at least retest 150. 

If we close the day up next Monday on decent volume, I expect QQQ to quickly fill the gap at 170, but probably run into overhead resistance as well. 

DIA analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

DIA is still in a short term downtrend, but if we break above 245, we are well on our way to the 248-255 level. Although the bears are still in control, if nothing bad happens next week, I think we gap fill to 246 and then test 250.  

SPY analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

SPY looks just like DIA. A break and close above 265 signals we at least gap fill to 270, and probably retest the 272.5-277.5 zone. This could happen as early as next week given we don’t have bad news from the white house or have any negative tariff related news. 

FB analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

Out of the FAANG stocks, FB had the strongest bounce. Perhaps a lot of people were buying $160 strike price puts, so the large fund managers couldn’t let it close below 160 without losing a lot of money. FB is running right up into the 160 resistance level, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we move higher next week and reclaim or at least touch 165. 

AMZN analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

AMZN had a big gap down yesterday due to Trump going after Amazon on taxes. We are still in a strong uptrend, so if you’ve been waiting for this pullback/dip, now would be the time to start adding. 

AAPL analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

AAPL was up a good amount and then randomly dropped 2 dollars within the last 15 minutes of the trading day. The chart looks neutral/slightly bullish, with 175 acting as overhead resistance, and 165 acting as support. A break above resistance or below support would likely result in a large price swing in that same direction. Since AAPL is a large component of the QQQ and DIA, wherever AAPL goes, the market usually follows. Warren Buffett bought a lot of AAPL in the last 6 months, so I’ll just stay bullish and see what happens. 

NFLX analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

NFLX saw high volume buying today. It is bouncing off the 280-290 support level which is a good sign for the bulls. I expect 300-310 by next week on a follow through of today’s buying pressure.

GOOG analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

GOOG presents one of the best risk to reward opportunities out of the FAANG stocks (with FB and AMZN being close). Your stop loss would be below the double bottom formation at 1000 (something like 970 might be good), and your profit exit would be in the 1120-1180 range, depending on how greedy or conservative you are. 

BABA analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

BABA also had a nice bounce today. The last 6 candles look identical to QQQ. It didn’t hit the 165-175 range which is where I will be buying. There’s a gap to fill at 195, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see BABA in the 190s next week. 

MU analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

I mentioned yesterday that I thought buyers would be really aggressive at these price levels, but it seems like the bulls are still hibernating. Perhaps Monday will be different. MU is still holding the breakout level of 50 which is a good sign for the bulls. Something about this chart just screams, “Buy me bigfry daddy!” Anyways, moving on…

SQ analysis 3_29_2018.PNG

SQ looks decent to buy here for a longer term hold (like 2-3 months), but we still haven’t reclaimed the breakout location of $50. The current momentum is still down, and we had very light buying volume today relative to the selling volume earlier this week. 

Tomorrow I will review some weekly charts. 

Have a great night, and I hope trading went well this week!

3/26/2018 Market Review

Fun Fact #11

Did you know that dividends are taxed at a lower tax rate than normal capital gains? This is assuming you have held the stock for long enough. Otherwise you could just buy the stock on the expected dividend date, and pay less taxes for the gains. 


 

3_26_2018 Market Stocks.PNG

The target price means this is where I think the stock will reach within 2 weeks. This does not mean this is a turning point necessarily. 

The market had a wild swing today, so although I was planning on just reviewing the indexes once a week, I’ll be looking at QQQ, SPY, and DIA today.

The massive bounce today seems to be as a result of the delayed tariffs on China. It could also be that short sellers are taking profits, but who knows. I still think the Trump tariff announcements last week should not have rattled the markets. People already knew the announcement was coming up 2 weeks ahead of time. 

QQQ looks really strong right now. I expect another green day follow through tomorrow. The volume is quite light which tells me that the bulls aren’t in control yet. This reminds me of the February move represented in the oval. 

QQQ analysis 3_26_2018

If you look below, you can see that the SPY and DIA have the same chart. They both have started forming a double bottom, but the double bottom pattern confirms when the index breakouts above the neckline (to form the “W” shape). Expect the indexes to rise but come to a halt near that neckline resistance. We might be in for another selloff soon. I’m staying long, but keeping my puts for protection. 

DIA analysis 3_26_2018SPY analysis 3_26_2018

As of finishing this post, I’ve noticed that futures are extremely green. It looks like we’ll be opening about 1% higher tomorrow morning

Good night, and let me know if you like/dislike that little chart I have at the top of the page!

3/21/2018 Review of Major Indexes and AAPL + FB

Fun Fact #6

Did you know that QQQ, SPY, DIA, and IWM options trade until 4:15 Eastern Time, which is 15 minutes after the market closes? The volume is considerably lighter, so the spread (difference between the bid and ask price) is usually significantly larger. 


 

3/21/2018 Market Analysis

Today the Feds hiked rates which was expected. We had a nice run up into the Fed announcement, but then tanked to close the day. 

Facebook still held up nicely after a massive bounce off the opening price. If you listened to my suggestions to scale in in the low to mid 160s, you would be up a nice amount. 

The indexes are below. The one to buy is still the QQQ.

QQQ analysis 3_21_2018.PNG

We are still below the 20 day EMA (highlighted in the green line above). Although you could make the valid argument that QQQ isn’t worth buying until it hits the 162.5-164 level, I still think it’s a good time to start scaling in. 

DIA analysis 3_21_2018

Dow Jones is still chopping around in this range, and will probably do so for a while. My guess is it goes up from here if it wants to move one direction or the other. Otherwise, I expect the index to stay relatively flat for a couple weeks. 

SPY analysis 3_21_2018.PNG

I would still avoid buying the SPY until it reaches the 263-265 level. I expect this to move sideways like the Dow Jones, but if it moves, I expect it to go up. 


 

The FAANG stocks that are worth buying/considering are FB and AAPL.

Take a look at FB on the weekly chart below. Notice that the stock bounced off the 20 week EMA (green line) multiple times in the last three years. Each touch of the 20 week EMA resulted in a new all time high. With proper risk management and given you hold long enough (at least 2 months). Facebook shares look like they are worth buying here as long as we don’t close below 160.

FB analysis 3_21_2018 Weekly.PNG

AAPL slumped today and dragged the QQQ down significantly (AAPL is about 12% of QQQ). It is now in the buy range of 168-172. If you’ve been waiting for a pullback, now’s the time to add a half position. You can add more in the 163-166 range if it drops that low. If AAPL drops below 160, this signals to me that there will be a trend change. The weekly chart of AAPL is below.

AAPL analysis 3_21_2018

I’m predicting a significant up day tomorrow for AAPL, FB, and QQQ. 

 

3/20/2018 Market Review

Fun Fact #5 

Did you know that bulls (the animal) swing their heads up, whereas bears (also the animal) swipe their claws down?

That’s why being bullish means you think the price will move up, whereas being bearish means you think the price will move down. 

Bull Bear Image

Image Source: https://www.dreamstime.com

 

Market Analysis 3/20/2018

Below are QQQ, SPY, and DIA like usual. 

QQQ analysis 3_20_2018

QQQ closed near the day’s high which is bullish. QQQ is also up another .1% in afterhours trading. However, the volume was well below average so that tells me that neither the bulls nor the bears are in control. I think holding your long positions here is still a good idea. The current direction of QQQ is unclear due to the uncertainty with Facebook stock. 

My prediction for this week is still slightly bullish, but we’ll have to see. 

 

DIa analysis 3_20_2018

Dow Jones had a nice inside day, meaning the entire body of today’s candle rests inside the body of the previous day’s candle. Although Dow Jones went up a decent amount today, the volume was very light. 

 

SPY analysis 3_20_2018

SPY is the weakest of the three major indexes, and there wasn’t anything noteworthy today. 


 

FAANG stocks analysis:

Facebook: We got a massive bounce off the day’s low of 161.95, but still closed down 2.5%. For swing traders, I recommend scaling in at the low to mid 160 levels and holding for 2-3 weeks. This trade offers a good risk to reward ratio since Facebook has dropped into a strong support zone (160-170 levels). The chart below indicates that the bears had trouble pushing Facebook below 160, which would have been a disaster. 

FB analysis 3_20_2018.PNG

 

Amazon: We got a massive bounce off a touch of the 20 day EMA yesterday. Remember this is an edge? However, like the indexes, the volume was very light. If the buying pressure stops, look to enter on the next dip to the 1450 – low 1500 levels. 

AMZN analysis 3_20_2018.PNG

 

Apple: Apple is neutral today and has closed below the 20 day EMA for the second day in a row. This proves to me that it has successfully “pulled back” from an all-time high. If you’ve been waiting for the pullback, now’s the time to buy. Otherwise, you can look to buy in the 169-172 levels for a better risk to reward ratio. I’d say just buy the dip now, but I’m also impatient and always scared of the stock running away without me on board. 

AAPL analysis 3_20_2018.PNG

 

Netflix: There’s not much to talk about with Netflix other than that I’m not buying it until it at least goes below 305. The 280-290 levels offer a good risk to reward ratio to go long. 

NFLX analysis 3_20_2018.PNG

 

Google: We are well below the 20 day EMA now so technically I would be looking to buy aggressively, but something just doesn’t feel right. Entering now gives you a good risk to reward ratio. If you are more patient, look to buy in the 1040-1060 levels since this is an intermediate support zone. 

GOOG analysis 3_20_2018.PNG

 

I look forward to writing for you all tomorrow! Good night.