Trade Ideas and Success/Profitability Rate

Last Update: 7/4/2020

Success Rate: 5/7 (71%)

Overall gain or loss (%): 146.33%

7/2/2020: Took a large sized pairs trade between XLF and SPY (long XLF, short SPY)

Position size: 25% of account

Profit exit: when prices converge (~20% spread currently, basing it off percentage off all time highs)

Stop loss: Hard stop loss 3% of account (bigger than other trades because of lower risk – market neutral strategy, ability to manually get stopped out at 1% loss of account).

In other words, if the indexes diverge by another 4%, I can close the trade for a loss. Hard stop loss is 3% of account or an increase in divergence by 12%. Otherwise, hold for at least 3 months and target the 20% gain when the indexes converge. Best case RR 5:1, worst case RR 2:1.

6/29/2020: Day traded Boeing

Sold short at 184.5 on gap up to resistance, SL 188.5, Profit Exit: 172.5. RR 3:1. Trade went well at first then quickly went sour. Took a 2% loss on trade (.25% loss on account value) after getting stopped out.

6/26/2020: Sold all of PSEC shares (updated 7/4/2020)

Forgot to edit this page when I first took the trade in April, entry was 3.81, exited at 5.09. The charts are now updated to include dividends, so you might find the prices to be different than when I sold it. Gain of ~34% (dividends reinvested as well).

6/8/2020: Sold all of my Boeing shares at 230 intraday

Exited Boeing in my trading account and Roth IRA today at 230 (10 below my target). Average purchase price was 97.5 in trading account and 156 in Roth IRA. Since I was holding 3 times as many shares in my trading account, the overall cost average was 117. ~97% gain on an overly large position.

Holding time: ~3 months

3/25/2020 (Long MRO)

Long MRO at 3.79. Plan to add the same amount of shares at a drop to the 3.21 – 3.35 range (current limit order for averaging down at 3.21). Edit: added at 3.21 so average purchase price is 3.5 now.

I bought MRO because I think the energy sector will recover, and the CEO has been buying shares recently. 

Minimum sell target: 7 (gap fill). 

Target sell area (11-15 range) because of mean reversion. 

I’m likely to sell when the CEO starts selling his position. 

3/16/2020 – 3/27/2020 (Selling cash secured puts to buy Boeing at a cheaper price)

Sold 3/27 150 strike put on 3/16/2020 for $25. Expired out of the money. Profit $2500 ($25 per share, 1 option contract is 100 shares). Gain 16.67%

Sold 3/21 100 strike put for $10 on 3/18. Boeing expired in the money at 95 on March 22, 2020.  Equivalent to being long at 90. Not counted as a gain until I sell my shares I bought at 90, although the initial profit is 500/10000 which = 5%. 

3/12/2020 (Long Boeing (BA) in Roth IRA)

Edit 3/14/2020: Selling at 240+ (retrace half of recent plunge)

Bought near market close at 156.

Adding an equivalent dollar amount at 120 and below.

Plan to hold for 5+ years or much longer depending on if there are significant changes.

Edit 3/14/2020: Plan to hold until we reach 240+ (could be 1 month, could be 1 year, could be 5 years, could be never).

BA Weekly chart 3_12_2020

3/12/2020 (QQQ Long on gap down to 185 zone)

Trade idea: Long QQQ on gap down open to 185 zone for a day trade or swing trade depending on price action. Close by end of day or after significant bounce.

Bought just under 182 with a stop loss at 177.

Closed position end of day at 181. Loss of .55%.

3/8/2020 (Cancelled trades due to market gap down). 

2 position trades in Roth IRA on micro cap companies because they are bouncing off a strong support level and insiders are buying. 

Entry: Long SBH 12.68

Stop loss: 11.79

Profit Exit: 20

Risk Reward: ~8.5 to 1

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Entry: Long ARLO 3.21

Stop loss: 2.81

Profit Exit: 4 -7 range (move stop loss up), or 12-24 range if it looks good

Risk Reward: Minimum 4 to 1; Maximum 50 to 1 if selling at 24

3/5/2020 (Day trade for market open 3/6/2020)

Day trade: Long QQQ on dip over 2% and sell on gap close.

Risk reward: 2 or 3:1 depending on stop loss

Position closed, gain: 1.64%

Time of position: 1 day (day trade)

3/2/2020 (Effective for 1 week)

Update: 3/6/2020: Facebook drops below the 180 profit exit, trade wasn’t taken because Facebook didn’t reach the low 200s. The covered short would have been quite profitable.

Idea: Covered Short (Options trade)!

Ticker Symbol: FB (Underperforming QQQ)

Entry: Short at 200-205 range (current plan is 203)

Stop Loss: 8-10 dollars above entry

Profit Exit: 180 (short a put with strike price 180 4/17 expiration)

Risk reward: About 3:1